It’s been a long three weeks since our last EPL article following the FA Cup quarter-final fixtures then the international fixtures. We did hit two from three picks before the hiatus, with Everton losing at home to lowly Burnley the only blot on our copybook. The international break can cause some additional volatility with teams having most of their squad off in all corners of the globe and unusually, countries played three games rather than the normal two. This will likely lead to more player rotation so we’ll tread a little more carefully than normal.
Picks total – 33 out of 79
Correct scores – 9 out of 81
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren’t having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can’t afford to lose. And if you don’t agree with my picks, don’t bet on them. I’m far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I’m doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I’ll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I’m not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it’ll be down to you what you bet on and how.
I won’t be previewing every game, but just identifying the three games I believe have the best value bet. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
Saturday, April 03rd, 2021
Sheffield United @ Leeds United – 10:00 am ET
Sheffield United lost their last league game 5-0 at Leicester City. What was most concerning about that game was what happened when they conceded a second goal; they just gave up. With 30 minutes left, they were one-nil down and still in the game but as soon as the second goal went in, you could see a team completely apathetic to their situation. Now managerless and seemingly a club with no direction and allegations being hurled about by the owner about the former manager, Sheffield United are all but relegated. This game will likely be another step towards confirmed relegation.
Leeds United continues to fight for a top-10 finish after ending a run of three games without a win by beating Fulham before the break. Like many teams this season, Leeds has a better record in away games than at home but they have been able to take advantage of teams beneath them in the table in home games. In seven such games, they have five wins and two losses. The two losses were both 1-0 and Sheffield United has just two clean sheets all season and has just one goal scored in their last six games.
Leeds United 11th – 39 pts
Sheffield United 20th – 14 pts
Score prediction: Leeds United 3 – 0 Sheffield United (Pinnacle odds +1000)
Single Game Parlay – Leeds United over 1.5 goals & Sheffield United under 1.5 goals @ -103 (Draftkings)
Sunday, April 04th, 2021
Burnley @ Southampton – 7:00 am ET
Burnley picked up a huge win away at Everton before the break and now find themselves seven points clear of the relegation zone. They drew their two previous games and now have lost just once in their last eight games. They have only won two of those eight games with draws being a common theme this season (only two teams have drawn more than Burnley’s nine). Burnley follows this game with a home encounter against Newcastle and if they win both, that should all but secure them Premier League football next season.
Unlike their opponents, Southampton has been on a downward trajectory in recent times. They did manage to seal an FA Cup semi-final berth a fortnight ago but in the league, they’ve lost ten of their last twelve games and their solitary win came against bottom of the table Sheffield United. They have scored five goals in their last three league games but this twelve-game run has seen them concede 32 goals with the one clean sheet coming against Sheffield United. Southampton faces West Brom next and will also feel two wins keeps them from relegation.
I can see a draw in this game but Southampton’s league form has been so poor, it’s hard to back them to win and I think Burnley nick the win.
Southampton 14th – 33 pts
Burnley 15th – 33 pts
Score prediction: Southampton 1 – 2 Burnley (Pinnacle odds +1200)
Both teams to score – Yes @ -104 (Pinnacle)
Fulham @ Aston Villa – 11:30 am ET
Fulham is still fighting for survival, just two points adrift for 17th place and avoiding relegation. Unfortunately, their recent form hasn’t been great with one win and three losses from their last four games and back-to-back defeats prior to the international break. They are still somewhat difficult to breakdown with five clean sheets in their last ten games and only nine goals conceded in that time (five of which came in their last two games).
Aston Villa’s season is in danger of petering out into nothingness with just one win in their last seven games and they too went into the international break on a poor run of form (winless in four games). Goals are increasingly hard to come by as they’ve missed talisman Jack Grealish recently and they’ve scored just five goals in their last ten games, failing to score twice in any of those games. Like Fulham, they have five clean sheets in their last ten games and just nine conceded in that period.
Both teams are finding goals hard to come by but have been relatively solid defensively. I don’t believe either team scores more than one as in each of their last ten games, only Fulham has managed to do that (once). We’ll play it safe and take under 2.5 goals which has been the case in eight of both team’s last ten games. We’ll pad it up with Aston Villa to get at least one player carded, something that’s happened in eight of their last nine league games and in all but one of their thirteen home league games this season. In Fulham’s last 16 league games, an opposing player has been booked in 15 of them too. That takes the game odds from -143 to +106.
Aston Villa 10th – 41 pts
Fulham 18th – 26 pts
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 – 1 Fulham (Pinnacle odds +575)
Single Game Parlay – Total match goals under 2.5 & Aston Villa over 0.5 total cards @ +106 (Draftkings)